Chapter Two: Ascending the Ladder of Economic Development
"Ladder theory" is a theory of economic development which claims that all countries tend to go through roughly the same pattern when transforming from a poor economy to a rich one. The countries of Western Europe, Canada and the United States followed this pattern when they transformed their poor economies into rich ones during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As we will explore later, many of the previously impoverished markets in Asia, including Taiwan and South Korea, would later follow this pattern to become equally as wealthy as the nations of Europe. So what does this pattern involve?
In his 2008 book Common Wealth, economist Jeffrey Sachs (whom I quoted in the home page) describes the journey of a poor country ascending into wealth. The journey, he explains, tends to have four different stages. The impoverished country moves up from one stage to the next just like a person climbing up the rungs of a ladder, gradually achieving more and more prosperity.
First, the country begins as what’s called a "subsistence economy"; virtually all of the population works in agriculture (as a farmer), and each farmer can barely grow enough food to feed his family (in the case of England, good geography meant that the farmers had small food surpluses). The country usually has very low literacy rates, unpaved roads which make transporting goods across long distances very expensive, and an unhealthy population characterized by short life expectancy, high infant mortality rates and widespread hunger. The average person makes about $300 per year.
Then, the country suddenly experiences a huge boom in food production; for Europe, Canada and the United States, this boom was the Industrial Revolution. The economy has now entered the second stage of economic development, becoming a commercial economy. Coal-powered machinery can now be used to plow more land than ever before, and fertilizers can now be produced (using coal energy) which increase the quality of the soil and further increase crop production. The country’s citizens (and government) can use this new found wealth to make investments which make their economy function even better. For example, the government can invest in hospitals where their citizens can go if they get sick. Citizens now have enough money to pay for vaccines to cure illness, meaning that they'll be less susceptible to killer diseases. These hospitals and medicines make the population healthier, and since a healthy population is more productive than a sick population, the country tends to become more efficient and even wealthier. Second, the citizens could invest in their children's education; now that citizens have enough money to afford to send their kids to school, new schools could be built which teach the country’s young farmers how to best make use of water to maximize their crop efficiency, or teach craftsman such as blacksmiths the skills they need to function. Since an educated population is more productive than an uneducated population, the country as a whole becomes more efficient and even wealthier. The government could also invest in transportation infrastructure such as paved roads and ports, which makes it easier to transport goods throughout the country and export goods to other countries. Since farmers now have to spend less money on transportation, the economy once again becomes more efficient and the country as a whole becomes wealthier. As you can see, the initial explosion in wealth from the boost in agriculture has allowed the country to make the investments needed to further increase their productivity, resulting in a second surge of wealth caused by a healthier, more educated public. The average person now makes about $1000 per year.
As a result of the economic growth, the country enters the third stage of economic development, becoming an emerging market economy. The nation’s infrastructure is now quite sophisticated; it includes plenty of paved roads, ports to ship goods, and electrical lines to deliver electricity throughout the country. Primary education is nearly universal (substantially increasing literacy rates) and secondary (or high school) education is now widespread. The nation also now has universal basic health services, including safe drinking water and hospitals with vaccines to treat illness. Dramatic investments in human health and education, as well as widespread infrastructure, have caused national productivity to be better than ever before; the economy continues to become more advanced and gradually wealthier. The nation is now producing a wide range of goods for export to neighboring countries, including car parts and household appliances such as microwaves and refrigerators; it might also be exporting services such as telemarketing or research analysis for business firms (this has in recent years become popular in India). The average citizen now makes about $4000 per year.
Finally, the country becomes a technology-based economy, the fourth and final stage of economic development. It is the current status of the world’s richest countries, including Canada, the United States, Western Europe, Japan and South Korea. A large portion (perhaps 30%) of the population is now college-educated; their considerable knowledge helps them to gain high-skilled jobs in fields such as the computer software sector and automotive engineering. Government-run health care (present in every major economy except for the United States) is able to detect and cure most disease, even particularly hard to cure illnesses such as cancer; this leads to very long life spans averaging about 80 years (34 years longer than the average subsistence economy life span). The country now has an advanced network of physical infrastructure such as highways, but also has advanced technological infrastructure including satellites and cable lines which allow large portions of the population to use mobile phones and have internet access. Average incomes are now about $15 000-40 000 per year.
Note that once the economy gets an initial surge in food productivity (seen in stage two), it begins to grow and prosper on its own. This is because the initial surge in wealth allows private citizens and the government to make investments in health, education and physical infrastructure which allows the economy to be more productive and grow further. The initial boost in wealth is like a seed which, once planted, is able to be self-sustaining and grow into a mighty tree on its own.
A Second Look at Europe's Rise to Prosperity
Now that we know about the Ladder Theory of economic development, let's look back at today's wealthiest countries and trace their ascent to prosperity. Their ascent did indeed begin with a sharp increase in food productivity; in the case of Europe and North America, it was the Industrial Revolution which dramatically increased the amount of food being produced. Their invention of the coal-powered steam engine meant that each individual farmer could now plow more land than ever before using coal-powered tractors and other farm machinery, and coal-powered fertilizer production meant that crops would now grow taller and produce more food than ever before. And so in 1820, Western Europe and North America entered stage two of economic development, gaining the capital necessary to make crucial investments.
As the population becomes healthier and better educated, and infrastructure such as paved roads are put into place, the country tends to become more productive (for the reasons stated above), causing further wealth to be generated. Now here's where it gets interesting. This new wealth is once again invested (through private citizens and the government) in health, education and physical infrastructure, generating further productivity and even more wealth. This third influx of wealth is once again invested in health, education and infrastructure, further raising productivity and generating even more wealth.
This country has entered into a cycle: it gets wealthier, uses that wealth to make its citizens more productive by investing in health, education and infrastructure, which in turn generates even more wealth which can once again be invested in health, education and infrastructure. The cycle continues until the country has very healthy citizens living very long lifespans, a large portion of the population with tertiary (university) education, and sophisticated infrastructure including a complex system of intercontinental highways which connect major cities and towns, electricity available in every household to run appliances, and a system of satellites and broadband networks to enable public use of cell phones and internet.
The effects of receiving a huge boost in agricultural productivity have been profound. From 1820-1980 (taking into account inflation), the average citizen in Canada, the United States and Australia became roughly 15 times wealthier. The average citizen in Western Europe became roughly 10 times wealthier compared to 1820, and Japan increased its wealth by about 20 fold (because Japan started out with less money, it is still not the largest economy in the world despite a higher growth rate).
But many regions did not experience as large a boom in agricultural productivity (such as many of the countries making up Africa and South America). Despite new agricultural technology being available, African farmers were largely too poor to invest in the machinery. And so Africa never reinvested into the economy through health, education and infrastructure- as a result, they did not grow nearly as much. Also remember that African societies tended to be burdened with diseases such as Malaria, were prone to severe drought since they are often landlocked or located around or within deserts, and are within the habitats of several crop-eating pests such as locusts. All of this further harmed agricultural productivity and prevented economic growth. As a result, from 1820 to 1980, South America increased its wealth by just seven fold (remember that it started out with considerably little money), Asia increased its wealth just four fold, and Africa increased its wealth just three fold.
Without the boost of agricultural productivity associated with Industrial Revolution technology, Europe, North America, Australia and Japan never would have been able to achieve enough wealth to make the investments in health and education needed to escape from poverty. Equally important were the smart government actions of the English, North American and Australian governments, which chose to spend this money on vital infrastructure instead of on other things. As noted in the previous chapter, the governments of Europe were also able to make other good policy decisions which promoted the success of the private market, including legal enforcement of property rights and privatization of farms which increased the incentive of individuals to work (we'll explore this more in chapter four). Without good government policy, the boom in agriculture would not have automatically caused an ascent up the ladder to prosperity.
How Foreign Investment Can Replace a Boost in Agricultural Productivity
We've seen how countries advance from being extremely poor to quite rich; they need to get a large surge in wealth (such as from a boost in agricultural productivity). Then that surge in wealth can be invested in health, education, and infrastructure, allowing the country's citizens to do their job more efficiently; this increase in efficiency in turn creates more wealth (a second surge in wealth). Then the country invests that second surge of wealth in health, education and infrastructure again, making its citizens even more productive and generating even more wealth. This "Cycle of Prosperity" continues until its citizens are extremely productive, having the best health, education and infrastructure in the world. Their productivity means that their nation will be gloriously rich.
But critically, for the country to begin this cycle it needs to have more than just subsistence wealth; without this extra wealth, it can't invest in health, education and infrastructure. England, North America, Japan and Australia achieved this boost of wealth from a boost in agricultural productivity which allowed more valuable food to be created than ever before. But can the boost in wealth come from a second source?
Currently, the world is filled with companies which need workers to build their products; products like plastic toys, shirts, sneakers, electronics, and much more. Most of these companies are based in the rich world (Europe, North America) and did not exist two centuries ago; they are the creation of a more efficient, wealthier system. Often, these companies are "multinational", meaning that they can go to overseas to hire workers. Many of these multinational companies have, in recent years, moved to poor countries such as China where they can pay workers far less money to do the exact same job.
This phenomenon, known as foreign direct investment, is a second means of escaping from extreme poverty.
Whenever a company builds a factory in a third world nation such as China, the company is putting vital wealth into poor nation's economy by paying the citizens money and giving their government tax dollars. If an enormous number of multinational companies suddenly move to a third world nation (as was the case with China and India, which we will investigate in chapter four) then the poor country receives a sudden boost in wealth. The country can use this brand excess wealth to invest in health, education and infrastructure, and thereby enter the Cycle of Prosperity, gradually become home to higher quality jobs and eventually become rich. Thus, a sudden boost in wealth from companies moving to third world nations, just like a sudden boost of wealth from more food, can catapult nations into the second stage of economic development by giving them the wealth needed to make critical investments.
Crucially, the critical investments in health, education and infrastructure actually help countries to attract more foreign direct investment, just as they help countries be more productive. For example, nations which have a sound network of basic infrastructure (such as paved roads, ports and electricity) are more attractive to companies from the rich world, since the companies now have to spend less money on transportation costs. In addition, countries which have skilled, educated citizens are more likely to cater to the foreign company's job qualifications. For example, during the 1990s, foreign companies which were manufacturing software were looking to move to the third world where they could pay their workers less money. After looking around, they eventually chose to move to India, since India had a large population of university students educated in software engineering. In this case, India's investment in education helped to make it more attractive to foreign companies, which set up shop in India and gave the country more wealth.
In short, the wealth generated by this initial surge in foreign investment can be invested to improve health, education, infrastructure. This makes the country more attractive to foreign companies and allows it to generate more wealth through foreign investment. The second surge in wealth allows it to make even more investments and become even more attractive to foreign investment; this cycle, in which foreign investment fuels more wealth, and wealth fuels more foreign investment, continues until the country becomes wealthy.
Western Misconceptions About Globalization
I should also mention that many people in the West have thoroughly criticized these multinational companies for moving away from their home country to places such as China. They have seen the movement as "China stealing our jobs", and have demanded that their government take action to keep the companies here. But these people fail to see that the companies' movement also benefits the rich world too; when companies can make their products for less money, they can sell the products for cheaper prices to Western consumers. Since the Western consumers now have extra money in their pockets, they can spend money on other things; this extra spending tends to create new jobs in Western countries.
For example, say my car has just broken down and I have to buy a new engine. Because this engine is made using cheap labor from countries overseas, I save $4500. I now have more money in my pocket, so I decide to renovate my house, hiring a construction worker to build a deck. As you can see, the construction worker now has a job which would not have existed if I had not saved the money; the overseas transfer of the engine-building company has thus created a new job in Canada.
However, this "Trickle-down" or "Supply Side" Economics train of thought has been rightly criticized in recent years because often more jobs are being lost than are being created domestically. The rich get the biggest benefit because they buy the most products (and thus receive the most savings), while many of the poor and less educated domestic manufacturing workers lose their jobs. In this way, globalization creates a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich within countries such as the United States and Canada. Indeed, the wealth in the United States is now more polarized than ever before in history, with 1% of the population holding 25% of the wealth. This effect should be offset with increased social spending paid for with slightly increased taxes on the richest citizens, restoring the wealth distribution to its previous level. Countries such as Canada and the United States should also be sure to maintain a strong education system for their children. This will help their populations maintain high living standards and avoid chronically high unemployment through attracting advanced-skills jobs (such as software design or advanced service sector jobs) which the developed countries have trouble attracting due to low education. Labor jobs appear to be the jobs of the past, and North Americans must learn to become more reliant on their cutting-edge technology industries to prevent taxation bidding wars and make globalization a good thing for everyone.
Summary
In summary, most nations which successfully escape from extreme poverty follow roughly the same pattern. They initially achieve a large boost in wealth to help them move past subsistence living; in Europe and North America it came from the invention of the steam engine during the Industrial Revolution, which allowed farmers to produce more valuable food than ever before (thus increasing wealth throughout the region).
A large boost in wealth can also come from another source; foreign direct investment, whereby foreign companies from the rich world set up factories in poor nations such as China where they can pay workers far less money. The company pays its citizens more money than they would normally be making, and allows the impoverished government to collect taxes. And so the poor nation gets a second surge in wealth. Some of this new found wealth is spent by the government to improve health (investing in hospitals which allow people to live longer and be more productive), education (giving the people technical knowledge to do their jobs better) and infrastructure (building roads and ports needed to reduce transportation costs). All of these investments increase the productivity and efficiency of the nation's citizens, thus creating additional wealth throughout the region. They also tend to attract more foreign direct investment, which also adds wealth to the region.
The country then enters a cycle in which a boost in productivity and foreign investment create wealth, and the wealth is used to further increase productivity and attract more foreign investment. This cycle continues until the poor nation becomes rich.
Sources
Bloom, David, Kevin Chan and David Canning. Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa. Harvard University Press, 2005. Clark, Gregory. The Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution. University of California (Davis), 2002. http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/prod2002.pdf Mohapatra, Sandeep and Scott Rozelle. Climbing the Development Ladder: Economic Development and the Evolution of Occupations in Rural China. Journal of Development Studies, 2006. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Background Note: Infrastructure Promotion in Africa. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/9/25/35896511.pdf Sachs, Jeffrey. Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet. New York: Penguin Press, 2008. Sowell, Thomas. Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy. Cambridge: Perseus Books Group, 2007.